How Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.